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Splitting Rickey Henderson in Two
09-14-2017, 07:59 PM
Post: #1
Splitting Rickey Henderson in Two
In a post the 2009 week, I mentioned a Bill James quote: If you could split [Henderson] in two, youd have two Hall of Famers. James was totally serious. Since James wrote those words, Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is just about the Nerdospheres favorite total value stat. Does it support James contention? Lets split Rickey in two and found out. Average Hall of Famers are worth around 60 Ereck Flowers Jersey WAR for his or her career. Hendersons career total is all about 114 WAR. Dividing that by two provides you with 57 WAR per player. Thats just about right for the Hall. However, as weve discu sed before regarding players like Johnny Damon (here) and Omar Vizquel (here), it isnt all about totals: we would like a person by having an impre sive group of peak seasons. What is a great baseline for a Hall of Fame career? We ought to not simply say well, player x is within, so a person Carl Banks Jersey with a much better career than player x ought to be in. If Jim Rice is the baseline, its likely to water on the Hall an exce sive amount of for many people. That was a nice bonus to Andre Dawson getting into: although he wasnt universally thought to be a Hall of Damon Harrison Jersey Famer, he wasnt a travesty. He had longevity, but additionally were built with a nice peak. Hes not shame towards the Hall. So hes our Actually Existing Baseline Hall of Famer. We can get good picture of his career by looking at an opportune nth Best Season WAR Graph. Thats a significant career, but take a look in comparison to Hendersons: Um, yeah. That 1985 MVP that Royals fans think Don Mattingly stole from George Brett? He actually stole it from Rickey. And Hendersons 1990 in Oakland might have been better still. You knew Rickey was awesome, but does he have two sets of Hall of Fame-level peaks in his career? I took Hendersons seasonal WARs, sorted them in descending order, and did a draft. His best season went to Rickey 1, his second-best to Rickey 2, his third-best to Rickey 1, and so on (should I have snake-drafted? I dont know.). Here is how the careers of Rickey 1 and Rickey 2 match up with Dawsons. [Youll have to click on the image to see it decently sorry Im not better at this stuff.] The total Ryan Nassib Jersey WARs of Rickey 1 and Rickey 2 arent as high as Dawsons just a few wins aren't any big deal. Neither had Dawsons longevity either, but careers over ten seasons are great. But the peaks oh those peaks. Both Rickeys have two seasons better than Dawsons best season, as well as their third-best seasons are immediately. The general accumulation is borderline for that Hall, but those incredible peak seasons push the careers outrageous. I think Dawson is really a rightful Hall of Famer, and if he's, both Rickeys are, Kenneth Harper Jersey too. What an unexpected, Bill James was right. How to see what happens when we divide Barry Bonds into three
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