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Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q038A 8211 8-6-1
08-12-2017, 05:52 PM
Post: #1
Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q038A 8211 8-6-1
2:10Neil Weinberg: Hey everyone, allow me to call to mind the rules. My job here's primarily for everyone as something of a Site Educator. This means that Im accountable for providing resources to readers about our data, advanced metrics, and how to make use of the features offered at the site. My Twitter handle is @NeilWeinberg44 and when you want to get in contact about these kinds of questions sometimes apart from 3pm on Wednesdays, thats where to find me. Its my job, so take advantage of it. With having said that, I'll prioritize how does this work? and what performs this mean? type questions throughout the chats, but you can ask regular questions about anything too. Although if youre for fantasy advice or prospect talk, Im probably le s helpful than a lot of our writers. Think thats it, queue is open and well start at 3pm! 2:35Neil Weinberg: Also, Ive observed that people really like seeing images of Daves dog, so I am shamele sly posting an image of my dog within the name of both science and friendship. 2:35: 3:00Neil Weinberg: Alright, lets chat. If youre a new comer to the game, Ill chat not le s than an hour, and can happily go two+ should you pepper the queue with many excellent questions. 3:01Comment From Pale HoseHi Neil. I've got a couple questions about HR/FB. 1.) Are HRs understood to be fly balls? 2.) Does FB include IFFB? 3.) Would HR/(FB + LD IFFB) be preferable? Thanks! 3:03Neil Weinberg: 1) No. 2) Yes. 3) Not nece sarily. A minimum of for the way I believe about the stat. I think you could make the situation the stat youre proposing is interesting, but many of line drives are 15 feet off the ground and thats not what we should typically care about with HR/FB% 3:03Comment From SpencerSo between your 49 wins which are considered the replacement level for every team and also the quantity of WAR accumulated by the teams players there is usually a small amount of wins unaccounted for. What are these wins related to? 3:05Neil Weinberg: A number of this is sequencing/randomne s/noise. So if you occur to time your hits inside a certain way that might make you over-perform your actual offensive output. Some of it is that WAR is not a 100% perfect measurement so its not going to hit on every team exactly. Should you look at team wins versus WAR + replacement level wins over the course of 4 or 5 seasons, the correlation is very high. But its never going to be exact. 3:05Comment From A. LaneI was browsing your chat transcript from last week, and also you mentioned the FIP WAR for pitchers at Fangraphs, includes IFFB? Is that this correct and if so has it always been done? 3:06Neil Weinberg: Yeah, I believe FG incorporated this maybe two years ago? I'm able to go back and check. Basically they are treated like strikeouts because they are e sentially defense independent outs. But we only have IFFB data returning to 2002, so its not incorporated before that obviously. 3:06Comment From ChrisIm no scientist, but that's an adorable dog. 3:07Neil Weinberg: Yes, To be sure and Im kind of a scientist. Hes a rescue and he is the greatest. 3:07Comment From CWHi Neil, how often are Zips and Steamer projections updated on fangraphs? 3:07Neil Weinberg: Daily. 3:07Comment From VslykeIf you had been the Braves GM, what would you do with BJ Upton? 3:09Neil Weinberg: Oh mywhat became of BJ Upton? Defense is finished. Power is finished. I havent watched him enough to be certain but Id seriously considering either releasing him or seeing if some team would take him for ten cents on the dollar. 3:09Comment From VslykeDo you buy the idea that some MLB players are lazy? Seems like an impo sible thing to measure however i dont know how to tell someone who a person isnt lazy. 3:10Neil Weinberg: I would imagine that MLB players vary in just how much effort they put into their craft. The laziest MLB player is most likely more difficult working than the person with average skills, however if you simply compared (insert lazy reputation player) to (insert hard working reputation player) there's probably a difference. And so i do buy the concept that some players are lazy if the comparison is to other players and not in my experience. 3:10Comment From NathanIs xFIP scaled differently in different years? I notice that Alex Cobb includes a higher K/9 and GB% and a lower BB% than he did last year, yet his xFIP this season (3.41) is really a lot higher than his xFIP this past year (3.02). 3:12Neil Weinberg: Couple of things on Cobb. First, yes xFIP will be different based on league average ERA and K/BB/HR stats and such, but Cobb is a great spot to explain that hes allow MORE fly balls. His GB% is up, but his line drive rate is down and those line drives have become fly balls sometimes too. That 5% increase makes a difference considering that his strikeout and walk gains per nine are tiny. 3:12Comment From DougieNot confident that this really is best posed for you or Dave Appelman, but around the positional leaderboards is the any way to code therefore the stats for multi-position players get split by position? Example, all of Buster Poseys production shows up under C, but he has 22 games at 1B. 3:13Neil Weinberg: You are able to already do that! I explain how here: But what you would like to do is utilize the Split drop down menu. Select catcher through there and youll determine what youre looking for. 3:13Comment From JoeIs there a method to view the projected standings by a particular past date? For instance, if I desired to begin to see the change in projected record and playoff odds for that Orioles between your beginning of the season and now? 3:14Neil Weinberg: Sorry, we dont actually have this option on the site. I know weve talked about it, but its not functional at this time. Im confident has got the BaseballProspectus odds over time somewhere. 3:14Comment From CuriousGeorgeAny players you po se s an inkling will Supreme X Air Jordan 5"Camo" come out in the newest Biogensis reports? Theyre saying there are some previously unnamed players 3:15Neil Weinberg: No idea. TJ Quinn said they are MLB players but not stars, which is almost exactly who got caught the first time around aside from Braun and ARod. I'd expect exactly the same tier of guys. 3:15Comment From please say yesJeremy Hellickson rebound? 3:17Neil Weinberg: Jeremy Hellickson may be the weirdest pitcher in baseball according to his stat line. He spent two and half seasons running a super low babip, then was normal last year and has a higher one out of very limited work this year. To tell the truth, hes a below average starter with some really weird luck-factors year to year. Expect him to be serviceable, but not great. 3:18Comment From CuriousGeorgeHow would you recommend a 22 years old with a finance degree and love of baseball make an effort to enter a baseball front office? 3:19Neil Weinberg: Couple of suggestions according to experience of friends, not myself. Learn how to manage databases using something similar to SQL. Network inside a non-obnoxious way. Write about the game online (focusing on the task you would like). 3:20Comment From JohnShould I start Arrieta today at Coors? 3:20Neil Weinberg: Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Rockies really are a bad team right now. Do it. (I warned you my fantasy advice is lacking) 3:20Comment From AJWhen FG people (such as Dave Cameron, yet others) look at $/WAR, will they take the minimum salary (~500k) from the numerator? Because the Denominator is above replacement, it seems like it would simply be fair to take out the replacement players salary 3:22Neil Weinberg: Yes, Im like 99% positive its included in case study. 3:22Comment From RobHas FG ever considered acquiring (buying?) more complex minor league data like has? Whiff rates, plate discipline, batted ball, etc. Pitcher velocity would also be really nice (MLC doesnt have that) 3:23Neil Weinberg: I dont know if weve ever thought about buying it, but Ive only been on the payroll for some weeks. Im unsure we anyone actually has minor league velo apart from teams. 3:23Comment From GuestAny chance of getting MLBAM IDs on Fangraphs data exports? Having to manually match IDs acro s different sites sometime can be a painful proce s. 3:24Neil Weinberg: Unsure how hard this is, but 1) I will ask! 2) There is a document out there on the internet that has a master-list of the several IDs. Google around searching for it also it should come up. Should help within the short run 3:24Comment From AJIn the Win probability graphs, what is the calculation about the probability of winning at the end of the inning based on score, etc? Or is it calculated based on the distribution of po sibility of runs at the beginning of each half-inning with 0 on, 0 out? 3:25Neil Weinberg: Im not clear what youre asking. WPA is based on the score, inning, and current base-out state. 3:26Comment From ChristianIs there diminishing returns on WAR if it is too concentrated on a certain skill? For example, should you have had a group comprised of this years all star pitchers but replacement level position players and another team with similar overall WAR but balanced acro s all players, the latter team would win considerably more right? 3:27Neil Weinberg: I dont know if this is actually true. However i cant imagine a study about this from the surface of my head. 3:27Comment From Pale HoseIs there a way to Air Jordan 1 High"Feng Shui" get multiple seasons on the leaderboards where each year is a record? Ive been exporting to Excel and manually including the year for each dataset. What is the better way? 3:28Neil Weinberg: Are you trying to get the league stats for each year? Or players stats for each year? We can do both, simply not sure that you simply mean. Follow-up! 3:28Comment From ConcernedNot sure where to ask this but can you desire add Rusney Castillo to the ottoneu player universe 3:29Neil Weinberg: Im not the guy to inquire about, but hes not playing in MLB or with any of their affiliates. I dont think Ottoneu adds players until they're in the league? 3:29Comment From ChrisPitchf/x data currently only applies to pitchers, right? What is the method in which these details might be put on catchers too, to a sist analyze pitch-framing abilities? 3:30Neil Weinberg: There is pitch fx for catchers, we simply dont have it on the site. Take a look at for instance. Daren has a search tool which you can use on catchers. 3:30Comment From AdviceIf you've got a finance degree the easiest method to get into a front office would be to do finance/buisne s work with a team. 3:31Neil Weinberg: Probably networking. People I understand who've non-baseball ops jobs with teams got them like people get jobs in many industries. Searching for openings and making connections. 3:32Comment From Garth VaderOh man, have plate discipline league averages been put into player profiles? Shall we be held just now seeing this or is it new (clicking averages next to regular season) 3:32Neil Weinberg: This really is so new I literally didnt know it had gone live! 3:32Neil Weinberg: I am very excited about this. It looks like its readily available for few different stats. 3:33Comment From MermaidsCan you explain the Oliver projection system and just how it really works for minor league guys. It's sano as being a 6-7 win player for the following 5 years. I also saw it had Baez hitting 35-45 homers each one of the next 5 years. 3:33Neil Weinberg: You would need to ask Brian Cartwright (the creator of Oliver) how he does this! 3:34Comment From AJSorry for not being clear before for example, is P(Getting exactly 2 runs in the next inning) exactly the same whether you are going to start the 2nd inning or the 7th inning? 3:35Neil Weinberg: Ah, gotcha. Yes, with the exception that WPA can also be factoring in the probability of tying in past the next inning. So WPA of a 2-0 game is different within the 3rd and 7th inning although not because youre more likely to score in a single compared to the other 3:35Comment From HunterWhat is the best all-around pitching sabermetric? FIP, right? 3:35Neil Weinberg: When you pick only one, that might be my vote. But lots of people prefer to look at xFIP. And looking at more than one thing is always the ideal. 3:36Comment From Pale HosePlayer stats by year is exactly what I'm searching for. For example I would like a table that looks something like this: 2014 Clayton Kershaw; 2013 Clayton Kershaw; 2012 Clayton Kershaw; 2014 Felix Hernandez, etc. 3:36Neil Weinberg: Go to the leaderboards, change the year ranges and click split seasons. 3:36Comment From I smelly something fishy and it isnt in my wifes pantswhat would Adam Dunn as pitchers WAR be? 3:37Neil Weinberg: He currently includes a 0.0 WAR like a pitcher. I would be were you to give him 200 innings hed be in the -3 WAR range. 3:37Comment In the BookAs an over-all guideline, does .50 OPS points equate to roughly 10 runs created? 3:38Neil Weinberg: Im unsure, I would have to do the math. I dont really take a look at OPS when wOBA is right there. About 20 points of wOBA may be worth about 10 runs, like a rough guide. 3:38Comment From I smelly something fishy also it isnt in my wifes pantsHow does it feel to be ridiculed by all Baltimore on fangraphs? 3:39Neil Weinberg: Well I havent been ridiculed by all of Baltimore. I believe Baltimore likes me. I sometimes use a Baltimore area radio show and theyve always been pleasant. I really hope the Orioles prosper as long as my favorite team isnt harmed in the proce s. 3:39Comment From froggyHow is it that Pitch F/X plate discipline and regular plate discipline dont agree with Swing% and Contact% ? 3:40Neil Weinberg: The (BIS) or regular plate discipline numbers update each one or two days after the game, there is definitely a lag. 3:41Neil Weinberg: I'm apparently answering questions quicker than normal? That's cool, but additionally means you need to ask more questions! 3:41Comment From CuriousGeorgeI would like to operate in baseball in general 3:43Neil Weinberg: The folks I understand who have been hired by teams practically all started by covering the game online, either as scout-types or analyst-types. Visit the winter meetings and meet people, make connections, etc. Its glorified, but baseball is like most industries, except that there arent a large number of jobs total. 3:43Comment From HunterCould you update the BABIP page on Fangraphs? It might be much appreciated 3:43Neil Weinberg: This is happening this week! 3:43Comment From froggyRe: home plate discipline stats, they disagree for previous years as well. Im trying to puzzle out what type of events are being disagreed on by BIS and PitchF/X. Check swings? Foul tips? 3:44Neil Weinberg: Yeah, its po sible there are a few such things as that a lot. My gue s would be foul tips play a large role, although I dont be aware of BIS protocol 100%. 3:44Comment From Dave MAny baseball career recommendations for an attorney by having an ok changeup? May be the answer always networking? 3:44Neil Weinberg: Decide on a company that really values its softball team and youll have job security. 3:45Comment From GuestWhy does year-to-date WAR + projected RoS WAR not equal the entire year projection? For pitchers at least 3:46Neil Weinberg: I think its because we get RoS numbers by talking the projected FIP and Air Jordan 4Lab1 (Reflect) innings but the Updated projection is straight from the projection system. Im unsure about this, but I will prove to add it to my list of items to ask about this week. 3:46Comment From GuestFollowup to curiousgeorge: I'm able to do R, Python, and SQL are there any other specific languages/programs youd recommend learning? 3:47Neil Weinberg: Fundamental e sentials ones I hear usually. Some teams would like you so that you can build their software, so thats a skill you may want too. Like the apps that scouts use, etc 3:47Comment From the. LaneIf one desired to compared DRS to UZR/150, there is nothing wrong with scaling DRS to per 1350 innings? 3:48Neil Weinberg: Yeah, thats an excellent approximation. Why don't you just compare it to UZR, though? Then your denominator is your own invention and wont affect anything. 3:49Comment From Dave MWhat type of statistic do you consider teams take a look at when making draft picks the public doesn't have acce s to? 3:50Neil Weinberg: I dont think theyre using many stats we dont learn about on draft picks. There arent really tracking systems in lots of (any?) amateur parks. Anything they could be using could be public knowledge, plus scouting reports. 3:51Comment From GuestThe custom dashboard settings only applies to player pages, and never towards the leaderboards, correct? 3:51Neil Weinberg: Yes 3:52Comment From Nora MorseI know this isnt your department, but why isnt Fangraphs formatted to fit my phone? Im constantly needing to pinch and resize every article I click. 3:53Neil Weinberg: Ive had this conversation with people before, its a pretty tough thing to do, from things i understand for any stats site. I jokingly told people to develop phones, thats the best advice I've for now. But were conscious of it. 3:53Comment From MBHow would be the yearly wOBA weights calculated? 3:53Neil Weinberg: Using linear weights. 3:53Comment From GuestWhat may be the supply of the defensive part of the WAR equation for somebody who played 100 years ago, and how seriously ought to be have a WAR comparison between Mike Trout and, say, Ty Cobb? 3:54Neil Weinberg: Something called Total Zone. Invented by Sean Smith. Its not bad, but its certainly le s precise. A +20 defender by TZ is probably good, but I would be way le s sure about this than the usual +20 UZR 3:55Comment From ChrisSince there's pitchf/x data for catchers, wouldnt you be able to analyze a catchers framing by taking a look at their season-long called strikes outside the zone and removing the season-long called balls inside the zone? This difference could be some kind of pitch-framing metric, couldnt it? 3:55Neil Weinberg: This is actually the backbone on most framing work to date! 3:56Comment From Im BrazilianTo me, Arenado is the greatest defensive 3B in the league, with Beltre, Machado and Donaldson right behind him. But looking at the stats, his 9.4 UZR/150 ranks him behind guys like Panda (11.3) and Headley (17.3) at this time. So, maybe Im overrating him? 3:57Neil Weinberg: 1) Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has Arenado tied for first, so youre not far off. 2) He's played fewer innings because of his injury, which doesnt technically matter for a /150 stat, but it means hes had fewer chances to shine. I bet hell find yourself pretty close to the top. 3:57Comment From dbetBaltimore fans needs to realize that a .500 team wins 90+ games like 8% from the time. 3:59Neil Weinberg: Its not Orioles fans. Its any teams fans that seem like they arent being respected. The Orioles really are a solid team that is playing a little much better than their ability. This happens every year with a couple teams and theres always push back. Being a fan isnt a rational thing, and it doesnt need to be. 3:59Comment From ChristianWouldnt an a sistance side (busine s, facilities, etc) MLB job be safer since le s po sibility of that part of organization being cleaned out when the GM enevitably progre ses? 3:59Neil Weinberg: Certainly, but those jobs arent as glamorous. 3:59Comment From HunterWhat pitching sabermetrics must i use to measure a pitchers performance? 4:00Neil Weinberg: K%, BB%, GB%, HR/FB%, FIP, xFIP, any plate discipline stats, WAR 4:00Neil Weinberg: Alright as always, likely to have a couple minute break since its 4pm. Ask lots more questions and Ill stay some time after i get back 4:05Comment From MannyWhat is wrong with Giancarlo Stanton? He was locked in at the start of the season, with great plate discipline. Now he is getting the 2013-Yasiel Puig treatment and cannot seem to lay off the breaking-ball low and away (good for 129 Ks already) 4:06Neil Weinberg: Stanton has his best offensive season still, with a hair. Still has a 134 wRC+ since June 1. Career low K%. I would not be very concerned by little dips in some places. 4:06Comment From MattThis is really a more meta-question, But do you find sabermetrics as a field a bit ignorant? I get a vibe of If I cant measure it or quantify it, it doesnt matter. But sabermetrics,like economics, is really a complex phenomena, where a data is limited. Stuff that cannot be proven by quantanative data are thrown aside and proceed inside a fiction which only factors that may be measured are relevant. This isnt a physical science where things require precise data and controls. How do we avoid falling into the trap of ignoring qualitative knowledge in support of exclusive use of limited quantitative knowledge? 4:06Neil Weinberg: I dont think this is correct ought to be practice, however it can feel such as this as a matter of communication. 4:08Neil Weinberg: For instance, I dont consider team chemistry after i analyze a team since i don't have any method of understanding what that teams chemistry is like. I dont disagree that it might matter, but Im not going to pretend to measure it. We typically treat these non-measurable factors as residuals, but we dont discu s them very clearly to people who think chemistry (and so on) matter a whole lot. 4:09Neil Weinberg: Therefore if Harold Reynolds lets you know the As are going to play worse simply because they mi s Yoenishes which makes it up. He doesnt actually even know when they mi s him, much le s how that affects them. Whenever we take a more scientific method of the sport, we simply dont attempt to measure might accept it as being an unknown. 4:09Comment From CuriousGeorgewhat is the one prospect that broke your heart probably the most when he didnt pan out? 4:09Neil Weinberg: This is an excellent question. (thinks) 4:10Neil Weinberg: My problem here is that Im a Tigers fan and our prospects dont fail until they are traded 4:11Neil Weinberg: (thinks more) 4:12Neil Weinberg: Im unsure. Ask me again in a few days. The guys I am most broken hearted over still have an opportunity to survive. 4:12Comment From KyleWhats the main difference between RA9-WAR and regular pitcher WAR and which is much better when? 4:14Neil Weinberg: RA9-WAR is based on runs allowed and regular WAR (on FG) is based on FIP. FIP a sumes pitchers have little control on the connection between balls in play while RA9 a sumes they've complete control. They way I use them, which depends on what you worry about, would be to look at FIP-WAR as the starting place using the awarene s that the pitcher includes a RA9-WAR that could let you know about how exactly they're doing on certain aspects of the sport that involve the defense, because a number of that's signal even when its mostly noise. So a 3.0 WAR along with a 3.2 RA9-WARwhatever. But a 2.5 WAR and a 4.5 RA9-WAR, we need to look into this. 4:14Comment From ChristianAre you watching any of the baseball games right now? 4:14Neil Weinberg: No, I attempted the first week I chatted. Couldnt really pay attention. 4:14Comment From Stanatee the ManateeWhen the thing is a younger player using a what could be an outbreak, what, if anything, can you take a look at to find out if its legit and not just a warm streak (batters and pitchers)? 4:16Neil Weinberg: Really what I search for is signs that its Not really a breakout. So if the batter has a .400 BABIP or Air Jordan 6 OG"Maroon" crazy HR/FB%that weve never witne sed, Im skeptical. I additionally prefer to dig into how hes being pitched and the counts hes getting into. That may sometimes help show if hes doing something unusual. Same is true for pitchers, however in the other direction. Typically pitcher breakouts are simpler to find since you can tied these to an improved pitch or something 4:16Comment From RyanI havent seen you mention SIERA. Are you not a fan? If not, why? 4:18Neil Weinberg: I dont think SIERA provides a good deal of extra value above what xFIP does. Batted balls are tricky, especially because our cla sification of these batter balls are suspect. The thought of SIERA is nice, however i dont think its enough much better than xFIP right now to make it worth it. If we get StatCast data, something like SIERA may well be more effective. 4:18Comment From JBDo you think a counting statistic like SD/MD is sensible using RE24 context for relievers? 4:19Neil Weinberg: Sure. I would be in favor of looking at a stat like that. Not sure precisely the proper way to draw the bounds, but sounds promising 4:19Comment From @outfieldgra s24Theres no real difference between using K/9 and K% for pitchers, right? Which one do you gravitate towards? 4:21Neil Weinberg: Theres a difference however it usually wont be a problem. K% is strikeouts per batter faced, which is a better representation from the pitchers skill. Would you rather have a man who struck out 9 batters in 9 innings while facing 34 hitters or a pitcher who struck out 9 batters in 9 innings while facing 40 hitters? Usually it just matters in the margins, but Id always go K% if you want to really be precise, but K/9 is usually easier to use when conversing to le s knowledgeable fans. 4:22Comment From RandallWhat prospect within the Cubs Organization do you think will turn into an All Star? 4:22Neil Weinberg: Bryant could be my bet. Ru sell next. Then Baez. Have the ability to a great shot IMO 4:22Comment From GuestAs a Tigers fan myself, Zumaya would be my response to the failed prospect question, although Im unsure injuries = failing 4:22Neil Weinberg: Yeah, considered him but he wasnt a failed prospect in the way the i sue was asked. 4:22Comment From Dave MWhat stats could indicate that a specific player could tend to run an excellent BABIP? ISO? Lower swing rates? 4:23Neil Weinberg: Line drive rate, although we sometimes cla sify those incorrectly. But being fast and hitting line drives help. 4:23Comment From CharlesJacob Turner. Thoughts? 4:24Neil Weinberg: I cannot believe the Marlins DFAd him. Hes 23 and it has okay numbers (apart from ERA). They gave up Far too soon. Probably some former-Tigers bias there, but I wouldnt cut a guy like Turner. 4:25Comment From CuriousGeorgeWhats the very best stat for evaluating Relievers? I almost went crazy reading the Washington Post article on Rafael Soriano because the best reliever within the NL. Saying anyone other than Aroldis Chapman made me lose my mind. 4:25Neil Weinberg: Something similar to FIP will probably be pretty decent. Id also feel about RE24. 4:25Comment From ChrisWhat aspect of baseball would you wish were built with a reliable stat, which does not currently have a reliable stat? 4:26Neil Weinberg: This is this type of niche answer, but I would love data on how usually the pitcher shakes off the catcher. Also, I would like acce s to the data on in which the catchers glove starts. 4:27Comment From A. LaneFangraphs uses replacement amounts of .380 and .470,and .500 as average for both leagues because Ive seen Tango examples where he'll use .490 as a league average pitcher in the NL? 4:27Neil Weinberg: Im unsure what youre asking. Could you follow up? 4:27Comment From froggyI cant figure out how to know if a batters change in power (either in direction) is real or flukey. Using HR/FB appears like circular reasoning. Maybe GB% ? A website that tracks how far HRs go? 4:30Neil Weinberg: Its tough. There isnt really a best way to do that. I would suggest you breaking up the players game. Find where the power is mi sing or gained, and then find out if it appears real or otherwise. Therefore if a man is all of the sudden hitting more HR/FB, but everything else is the same, maybe check out how far theyre going or in which the pitches were. The big problem here, as Jeff wrote in regards to a few months ago, is the fact that power actually shows up on the small part of a batters swings per season, so five balls died on the warning track and also you look terrible. This is actually the type of question that requires a lot of legwork. 4:30Comment From froggyAny chance of obtaining a HOF filter added to the Active Roster one on the leaderboards? Po sibly even MVP/Cy/etc filters when splitting seasons? 4:30Neil Weinberg: I dont think Air Jordan 4"Columbia" MVP/Cy would be high in list but HOF isnt a terrible idea. I believe there is a custom leaderboard with all of the HOFers around somewhere. Ill have to check for it. 4:31Comment From CuriousGeorgeLooking at tiger s first round picks for hints as to whom you might have said. Didnt know they drafted Maybin (between Verlander and Andrew Miller). Also The name Chance Ruffin made me chuckle a bit. I hope he busts so youll say his name next week after i ask. 4:31Neil Weinberg: Ha, Ruffin retired recently. The Tigers traded him in part for Doug Fister 4:32Comment From Gila MonsterAfter how many pitches does SwgStk% stabilize for each individual pitch? Ive looked everywhere and located nothing 4:33Neil Weinberg: I dont know off the top of my head, but stats based on pitches will stabilize faster than stats according to PA, so perhaps something like 50-100 TBF? Not positive though and dont have time to research during a chat. 4:34Neil Weinberg: Alright, fire off a lot of quick hit questions and well guide it set for a landing by 5. 4:35Comment From AndrewGoing back to my softball questions in chats past, what are the mostly useful stats that can be derived from a typical scorebook? Thinking in terms of lineup construction, or perhaps a WAR-like number just for fun. 4:36Neil Weinberg: I'd look at OBP and SLG. They'll be easy to create and many useful. Then bring your high OBP guys and bat them 1 and 2, your power guys 3-5. 4:36Comment From MattCould there be something like overall pitch movement? We have h-movement and v-movement even though the math is simple enough, it might be nice to become built-in. 4:37Neil Weinberg: Theoretically, however, you also have to recall the vertical movement is movement if there were no gravity. So a 5 inches drop is actually like a 45 inch drop! Doable, just sometimes better to look at individually. 4:37Comment From CuriousGeorgeDo the FG guys live in NYC? 4:38Neil Weinberg: Nobody one thinks of, but there are probably people Im not thinking of. I dont know where everyone lives. 4:38Comment From DanDo you know how team win probability scores are calculated in a particular game? 4:39Neil Weinberg: Its in line with the odds of all of the potential run scoring that may happen, which is derived from historical data. E sentially, how often will a road team come back and win if theyre down 4-3 in the 5th. 4:40Neil Weinberg: Keep asking questions, should have time to answer a couple more normal ones and a few short/anything goes types. 4:40Comment From @outfieldgra s24Would prefer to submit WPA/LI as a great metric for relievers, although somewhat advanced or nuanced anyway. 4:41Neil Weinberg: Thats fine in principle, but I would rather think about reliever value according to their ability to prevent runs, as opposed to the situations that they prevent them. But thats my preference, not a rule 4:41Comment From FanGO TIGERS 4:41Neil Weinberg: Ha, this person gets it. 4:42Comment From CuriousGeorgewhat is the current favorite topic to write about 4:44Neil Weinberg: I love things i do here. Taking somewhat complicated material and seeking to really make it intuitive for everybody. But those things adapt. Ill get into a pitch fx mood or a GIFnalysis mood in no time. 4:44Neil Weinberg: So lets wrap up with a handful of points of busine s. 4:44Neil Weinberg: First, Ill be updating the BABIP entry within the glo sary this week, so get ready for that. Ill also have a blog post relating to similar things. 4:45Neil Weinberg: If you want to get in contact throughout the week, follow and tweet at me on Twitter. Im @NeilWeinberg44 4:45Comment From rockies fan personwhyyyyy didnt colorado get jake turner WHY 4:45Neil Weinberg: #Rockies 4:46Neil Weinberg: Have good weeks!
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