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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat 8212 9-2-14
10-12-2017, 01:55 PM
Post: #1
Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat 8212 9-2-14
9:05Jeff Sullivan: this is a video of a volcano 9:05Jeff Sullivan: Lets talk about baseball! Lets not talk about fantasy baseball. 9:06Jeff Sullivan: As a word of warning, I was completely from touch over the past weekend, so great luck getting an insightful answer on anything thats happened extremely recently. One can get caught up only so much 9:06Comment From AlexFavorites in the NL, AL? 9:06Jeff Sullivan: As and Nationals 9:07Jeff Sullivan: Still consider the As as the best team within the AL, however I highly doubt theyre catching the Angels in the division, to ensure that makes things complicated 9:07Comment From DaveSo Justin Verlander 9:07Jeff Sullivan: Is that this about his pitching or his butt 9:08Comment From GuestDid you know you are able to drink lava?but you are able to only do it once 9:08Jeff Sullivan: You can cook in lava http://www.dolphinbayhilo.c 9:08Comment From MarkCan we chat about fantasies about baseball? 9:08Jeff Sullivan: Such as the fantasy that we can predict it? 9:09Comment From Hamilton PorterAm I simply overly excited or with equal playing time would Joc put up better numbers the coming year than Oscar Taveras? 9:10Jeff Sullivan: Id call that certain a coin flip. Taveras has questions about his discipline and power at this time, but Pederson has set up the numbers hes set up within an extremely hitter-friendly environment therefore we dont really know what he's yet outside of his observable tools 9:11Jeff Sullivan: I understand people have been decreasing on Taveras over the last couple of months but even if you dont think hes a future superstar, lets 't be too hasty to write him off being an elite-level prospect 9:11Comment From Robert% chance Matt Shoemaker is real? COBBLE COBBLE COBBLE 9:11Jeff Sullivan: Think I wrote about this last week. I think hes legitimate being an above-average starting pitcher; obviously, takes more time to prove hes a borderline ace. I love a starting pitcher with a decent splitter 9:12Comment From GuestKluber hasnt looked hot his previous couple of starts. Good competition or something like that to bother with? 9:12Jeff Sullivan: Hes allowed 11 runs his last three starts, and Felix has allowed 10. Two pitchers who might be trying to back into the Cy Young award 9:13Jeff Sullivan: My presumption is the fact that Kluber is mainly fine, but nobody is working at 100% at this time and hes real near to 200 innings. Theres going to be some fatigue inside, certainly 9:14Comment From Tony G.How many starts left for Drew Smyly this season? According to his stellar numbers since being traded towards the Rays, any chance he or she is a top-10 American League pitcher pick up? 9:14Jeff Sullivan: He isn't a top-ten pitcher 9:15Comment From Awake in SeattleChris Taylor vs. Brad Miller; who would you decide to go with ROS, as well as in 2015? 9:16Jeff Sullivan: Still prefer Miller, by a bit. Not deeply in love with either of these. Helps that Miller has actual power 9:17Comment From Vic RomanoWill Wainwright get right down the stretch? Seems difficult to picture them making the playoffs without him being who he normally is. 9:18Jeff Sullivan: As i understand what youre getting at, the Cardinals recently taken the lead in the NL Central with Wainwright still not being his normal self, so its not like it is really an inarguable barrier to their succe s 9:19Jeff Sullivan: A few days ago he said hed been dealing with a dead-arm phase, which Im prepared to believe. Im also prepared to believe Wainwright knows their own body and limits, given what hes experienced before, so while theres no guarantee that hell just up and obtain better he is a pitcher, after all Im moderately encouraged and I think hes been showing signs lately. I believe hell be solid all of those other way 9:21Comment From GSonOne of Joc Pedersons stated strongest attributes in the minors was his pitch selection discipline.. but still struck out waaaay too often.. Would a Baez Joc Pederson comp be remote? 9:21Jeff Sullivan: Way off! 9:21Jeff Sullivan: Baez swung half the time in Triple-A, and made 63% contact. Pederson swung 41% of times in Triple-A, and made 70% contact 9:22Jeff Sullivan: Or you prefer, Pederson has doubled Baezs walk rate while striking out le s often 9:22Jeff Sullivan: And Baez has got the superior bat speed/power ceiling because hes a freak 9:22Comment From GuestHow predictive is K-BB%? Is it still useful when the other advanced stats dont point towards a solid pitcher? 9:22Jeff Sullivan: Starting point-y, like FIP or xFIP are. Start with the most important thing and then work your way down. If a guy isnt good despite a strong K-BB%, figure out why. Like with Joe Blanton! 9:23Comment From ErikLots of anticipation, some false starts, finally an eruption although not nearly what lots of people had hoped but still impre sive if you gave it a while. Icelandic eruption is what current ballplayer? 9:24Jeff Sullivan: Lonnie Chisenhall? 9:25Comment From TravisFredi Gonzalez pinch hit Jose Constanze for a healthy Justin Upton yesterday. Fredis gone next year, right? Please let me know hes gone 9:25Jeff Sullivan: It had been the bottom of the ninth of the 7-0 baseball game 9:25Jeff Sullivan: I cant imagine actually caring about what occur in that half-inning 9:25Comment From DavidFelix has looked dare I say HUMAN in the last couple of starts. Can the Ms afford this? 9:25Jeff Sullivan: They sure cant! 9:26Comment From fanjeffhey jeff huge fan. which player is the best at dancing 9:26Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki 9:27Comment From Dr. MetIs it just me, or has this season been one for the ages when it comes to non closers having astronomical K rates and being nearly as good or much better than their 9th inning counterparts? 9:28Jeff Sullivan: I dont be aware of exact history, however Ejuan Price Jersey strikeout rates keep rising and so the league-average reliever at this point basically whiffs a batter a frame 9:28Jeff Sullivan: Are you currently including Wade Davis over Greg Holland? Because theyre basically equal 9:29Jeff Sullivan: I believe baseball also generally has got the best understanding of leverage that its ever endured, so theres much more of an emphasis on having a really good reliever for that 7th and 8th as well, but I think its mostly just that strikeouts abound today 9:30Comment From GuestWhat do you consider of Brandon McCarthy? Nearer to Yankees, Diamondbacks, or his xFIP? 9:30Jeff Sullivan: I buy him being an 85-90 FIP- sort so long as he sustains this velocity hike 9:30Jeff Sullivan: Hes been super good, and its fairly easy to explain. He hasnt even been hurt yet! 9:30Comment From KevinBut how good do you think the As can survive a one-game playoff with, say, Felix and also the Mariners? 9:31Jeff Sullivan: The As have Lester or Gray and also the As 9:32Comment From DanielThe Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are fighting for two playoff spots. FG says the Tigers are in 80%, Royals are at 65%, and Mariners are in 35% to obtain one spot. Would you concur? 9:33Jeff Sullivan: Id put the Tigers a little lower and the Mariners a little higher, sort of as with between the current FG odds and also the season-to-date current FG odds 9:33Comment From GuestHow a lot more seasons is Adam Jones a solid CF? Hes been amazingly consistent the previous few years 9:34Jeff Sullivan: His track record is really amazing, in how little its varied year upon year. Guys only recently turned 29 so he could have another 4-5 seasons to be average or better within the middle 9:35Jeff Sullivan: This is actually the first year the numbers have really loved his defense, but the Orioles were living with him this long and that he shouldnt lose his athleticism that quickly 9:35Comment From DingosWhich player, positively or negatively, has produced runs for a price farthest from his true talent level? 9:35Jeff Sullivan: hmmmmm 9:35Jeff Sullivan: Lets try both sides! 9:36Jeff Sullivan: I wont use the obvious Justin Turner 9:37Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce and Jean Segura? 9:37Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Gyorko rather than Segura 9:38Comment From SandyWhats wrong with Corey Kluber? Is this regre sion to mean, or is he hurt, and have batters begun to figure him out? 9:38Jeff Sullivan: Does something always have to become seriously wrong? 9:39Jeff Sullivan: A quick take a look at some numbers: 9:40Jeff Sullivan: First 26 starts: 75% contactLast 3 starts: 63% contact 9:41Jeff Sullivan: His velocitys been fine. Some i sues finding the zone, even though that *could* be suggestive of something, its encouraging that hes been so difficult hitting on the per-swing basis. I a sume he's an ace who is inside a minor results slump, much like Felix 9:43Comment From SpencerHow do you see Alex Woods future happening? His age-22 and 23 seasons are extremely much like Sales 22 and 23 seasons. Sale is better on the K/BB side, while Wood gets more ground balls and limits homers a bit better. All told, they seem pretty similar. Your ideas? 9:43Jeff Sullivan: I give Sale a pretty substantial edge for doing what hes done in Chicago within the American League. You will find obvious similarities backward and forward but Id put Wood a level below, which isnt an insult considering how awesome Sale has been this whole time. Good starting pitcher, wholl never make people feel entirely comfortable about his health 9:44Comment From Dr. MetHey if you were out of touch over the weekend howd you discover about JV and KUptons photogenic-ne s? 9:44Jeff Sullivan: The worst a part of going off the grid is subsequently having to play catch-up for some hours 9:44Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes Twitter is just the worst thing 9:44Comment From BrianBreak it to us gently Jeff, are the Ms will make the playoffs or otherwise? (my long time Ms fandom thinks I know the answer already) 9:44Jeff Sullivan: More often than not the answer would be no 9:45Comment From GuestO/U 83.5 wins for the Cubs the coming year? 9:45Jeff Sullivan: That feels like a really good line. Ill be bold! Over! 9:45Comment From MikeHas Jorge Soler peaked? 9:45Jeff Sullivan: well theres no higher-level than the major leagues, so for the reason that sense 9:46Comment From JheffSo Aaron Sanchez has looked good. Maybe he doesnt suck? 9:46Jeff Sullivan: Hes been a reliever. Pretty easy for a guy having a big arm to be a fine reliever. People who ranked Sanchez using the best young pitchers didnt see him like a reliever 9:47Comment From AAHector Rondon a high tier closer the coming year? 9:47Jeff Sullivan: Not top-tier, no, but fine 9:48Comment From WobatusIf you were Mariners GM, can you trade Miller this off-season for pitching, Lance Kendricks Jersey say a Rafael Montero type, or hold him and hope he can become super-utility depth. 9:48Jeff Sullivan: Id sooner attempt to capitalize on Chris Taylors BABIP 9:48Comment From GuestDo you believe Joc will get work in center field, or will the crazy Dodgers OF logjam put him in the corner spots? 9:49Jeff Sullivan: Puigs actually been a pretty adequate defensive CF, it appears, so I doubt Pederson works his means by there regularly 9:49Jeff Sullivan: On the stretch in 2014, I mean 9:49Comment From BobbySIs MLB headed on the same path because the NBA with regards to tanking for that draft? Theres tremendous value in higher picks; draft pool money, playing potential draft picks against one another, protected picks, etc. The Rangers appear to be embracing this idea 9:50Jeff Sullivan: Not at all. Within the NBA, a higher draft pick can yield immediate rewards, and something player can all but make a team if hes good enough. The baseball draft will usually be too risky and unpredictable. I dont think that baseball teams tank. I do believe that they act a lot more conservatively on the stretch if theres pointle s to push things. Like, if a pitcher is a little bit hurt in September, you may as well shut him down if youre just playing for a 63rd win 9:51Comment From GuestWhere would you see Chris Davis slash line being next year after a little regre sion to the mean? 9:51Jeff Sullivan: I imagine hell slug about .475, which I gue s would give him a line close to his career averages. Exactly what a coincidence! 9:51Comment From HRWhat do you make of bo porters firing? 9:53Jeff Sullivan: Easy to determine coming. Seems like there is very poor communication between him and also the front office, and thats just never going to work. Now, of course, Porter wasnt the problem, but hes been *a* problem in relation to building discontent, and its going to be hard for the Astros to find an awesome and willing candidate. But given how few managerial positions are open at any given time, applicants will still be there and today the Astros po se s a better concept of what theyre searching for than they did when Porter first came aboard 9:54Jeff Sullivan: And also the manager they need now will change in the manager they wanted then. Then, the Astros were years and years away. Now, theyre transitioning from terrible to okay, and the stage after that should be borderline-competitive. So it shouldnt be about playing Double-A players much longer 9:56Comment From Guestwhat 3 players may have started the most games in the OF for the red sox at this time next year 9:56Jeff Sullivan: Cespedes, Betts, Victorino? 9:57Comment From JheffWhat do you consider from the Jays calling up Daniel Norris and Dalton Pompey? 9:58Jeff Sullivan: Why wouldnt they? Norris has been strong to date and hes had his innings limited, so thisll be great exposure for him. And Pompey will just get his eyes opened. Hes risen very quickly and that i dont think hes big-league ready or anything, but every little experience he gains now's an experience he doesnt need to gain in 2015 or 2016 9:59Comment From JackI quit my high school baseball team because the thinking was so ancient; the coach popularized Twitter and called me ignorant for saying Mike Trout has a much better season than his MVP choice Jose Altuve. Im not crazy, right? Because all my friends agree with him that Altuve>Trout. 9:59Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, theyre wrong 9:59Jeff Sullivan: Extremely wrong! 9:59Comment From WobatusHow common is it for a hitter to solve a major K problem like Baezs? 10:00Jeff Sullivan: Strikeout-prone hitters tend to always be strikeout-prone hitters; its just a feature of the swings. But its not uncommon for players with questionable discipline in their very early 20s to develop stronger eyes as they age, so whiffs could be limited just from reducing an extra pitch per 25 or so. Should you believe that the whiffs will be there, then it becomes a matter of refining the pitch selection as much as is po sible 10:01Comment From KimballGiven the mounting evidence that framing, and other receiving skills, are very valuable, would it seem sensible for teams to use their #2 catcher as something like a relief catcher once the game isnt close, to reduce the wear on their #1 guy? Or should teams basically never voluntarily pull their starting catcher, even just in the 8th, in the event of injury? 10:01Jeff Sullivan: Well, of course, teams are incredibly risk-averse when it comes to playing all of their catchers in the same game. Been like that forever 10:02Jeff Sullivan: A bolder manager could slightly le sen the wear on his starter, but it probably wouldnt yield much of a benefit. Youre referring to several percentage points, as blowouts are rare and also the regular catcher might have already caught several dozens of pitches 10:03Comment From EricDo you attribute Justin Mastersons last 6 begins to randomne s, brokenne s or suckine s (sp?). 10:04Jeff Sullivan: Somewhat encouraging, he actually found the strike zone again! But youre referring to a man whos down 2-3 mph from the year ago, and thats suggestive of something being wrong along the way. His mechanics are presumably futzed up, and for all I understand theres something wrong in the arm. I believe hes troubled; I dont think it has been luck. He might be the sort to profit from extended rest 10:05Comment From GuestHow much of Lucas Dudas breakout is sustainable? Is this something he can take into the coming year? 10:06Jeff Sullivan: Well, for that record, hes gone from a 120 wRC+ to some 133 wRC+. So its not really that dramatic. But he is doing seem to have gotten more aggre sive within the strike zone and hes lifted his power while reducing his strikeouts, and so i think hes something similar to a 125-130 sort 10:06Jeff Sullivan: Having a big platoon split 10:07Comment From Scott M.Would a playoff team ever shift their rotation around according to park factors? 10:07Jeff Sullivan: I actually think weve already seen this, although I cant think of the example from the top of my head 10:07Jeff Sullivan: Back in 2 minutes! 10:10Comment From frfrTrout were built with a pretty poor August by Trout standards any chance the MVP gets sniped? Josh Donaldson could have a chance if he gets he breaks 30 dingers and gets his batting average up. 10:10Jeff Sullivan: Felix was the very best bet and Felix has hit a speed bump 10:10Jeff Sullivan: Alex Gordon could easily get some votes, but because of methods a lot of that's defense, it must be Trout with a landslide 10:11Comment From TravisTheres been lots of talk the Braves think Gattis is best suited for that DH spot going forward so theyll look to trade him following the season. What kind of return do you consider the Braves could get for him? 10:13Jeff Sullivan: An excellent return that isnt a blockbuster. Theres a lot of skepticism out there about Gattis position and discipline, but hes got that established right-handed power and that he isnt old. Mark Trumbo brought Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago and Trumbo had le s team control 10:13Jeff Sullivan: Trumbo would be a little younger at the time than Gattis will be, however, you could think along those lines 10:14Comment From JimRyu an ace level guy? FIP is 8th within the bigs this year. 10:15Jeff Sullivan: I set a higher ace bar but Ryus been fun to look at progre s. Last year, 8% walks within the first half, 3% within the other half. This year, hes settled at 4.5%. 10:15Comment From Kennys GOn a 1-10, with 10 being avg. MLB team, how much proprietary data does Fangraphs have acce s to? The general public? 10:16Jeff Sullivan: uhhh. 8? And then 6 or 7? We get an awful lot, using the extra items that teams get being mostly on the margins 10:17Comment From Vic RomanoTheres no competition for that NL Cy Young, Kershaw try to escape by using it some time ago.and can the relative lack of a powerful contender for the NL MVP lead to Kershaw winning both? 10:18Jeff Sullivan: I sues with the majority of the strong NL contenders. Kershaw will be nicked for being a pitcher. Stanton will be nicked for mi sing the playoffs. Lucroy is going to be nicked for having his defensive work underrated. McCutchen is going to be nicked for his injury. I believe the NL ends up split a handful of ways 10:18Comment From Nick CWhat does the future hold for Allen Craig, inside your view? 10:18Jeff Sullivan: Much le s playing time 10:19Comment From ELARWhats so bad about pitching helmets? People always take the argument to the extreme, imagining pitchers in full-body-armor, but realistically, we already have functional pitching helmets being used in other sports (softball, for instance). Its simple to say itll me s up the Samson Ebukam Jersey game because change is hard, but hockey, football, catchers, umpires, etc. have benefited long-term from protection and also the game(s) have progre sed. 10:20Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers cant pitch how they normally do wearing the helmets that currently exist. Big-leaguers just cant consistently sustain their mechanics. But this is a area of the future, after helmets are created mandatory at lower levels. PItchers will then just develop together, and theyll be fine together. After, of course, the security is improved and reduced in size 10:20Comment From SamanthaNext FO shakeup will be _____ ? 10:20Jeff Sullivan: Colorado 10:21Comment From FishRE: Fatigue. Should we change from considering pitchers in terms of pitches thrown, not innings? Its not like we dont have that data easily available. 10:22Jeff Sullivan: Well sure, but innings act as a fine proxy when youre talking fast. Its like how wRC+ is better than OPS, but OPS gets you most of the way there. You actually worry about things like appearances and high-leverage pitches thrown, etc 10:22Comment From EdDid Lloyd McClendon make a mistake by giving his starters extra rest? It appears as though Seattles rotation is actually from sorts after having an amazing run in July and August. Does sticking with a five day schedule really make that big a difference? 10:22Jeff Sullivan: The additional rest worked great before. Now theyre slumping. It happens. Theyre not really a true-talent sub-3 ERA baseball team 10:23Comment From JohnMany of my fellow Braves fans seem to think the Upton bros (especially BJ) are lazy. The amount of this smoke is fire and just how expensive is bias for a number of reasons? 10:23Jeff Sullivan: BJ drew such critiques in Tampa Bay as well and its pretty much all horseshit 10:23Comment From Matt T.Is there anyone barring creating a program that measures where the catchers glove is/ball ends up to determine command? 10:24Jeff Sullivan: That already exists and baseball teams get acce s to it. However the glove isnt always the actual target and from what I understand the data thats come out of that program hasnt been particularly useful in the early going 10:25Comment From MIBDoes Fangraphs or other providers have any method of seeing the number of starts confirmed pitcher has remaining and who their up against? 10:25Jeff Sullivan: No, because that information isnt recognized to anybody 10:26Comment From George is CuriousAny early favourites the thing is for 2015 American League ROY? 10:26Jeff Sullivan: Rusney Castillo? 10:26Jeff Sullivan: Who I recognize I forgot about way earlier when discu sing the 2015 Red Sox outfield 10:27Jeff Sullivan: See, drawbacks of a weekend within the woods. 10:27Comment From GuestCody Allen or Jake McGee, who is the greater closer? 10:27Jeff Sullivan: McGee 10:28Comment From Johnny JohnsonSo the Giants now sit at a 94.1% chance of making the playoffs. You buy that? How dangerous are they if they enter? Could we see 12 again? 10:29Jeff Sullivan: Dont see any reason to not buy that. Theyre average-dangerous theres nothing special about them which makes them October-friendly. Yes, they might win the planet Series! Probably they're not going to. 10:29Jeff Sullivan: We have their WS odds at 6-8%. so 10:29Comment From DomI find the downward trend in offense troubling, would you see any need to think hitting can make a comeback in the next couple of years? 10:30Jeff Sullivan: I believe we're able to see it stabilize, but I dont think were going to view it reverse direction sharply. Creating a change that triggers that might be too dramatic for baseball to drag off within the next five years 10:30Comment From Nick CHow do you experience feeling about Josh Harrison potentially winning the NL batting title? 10:30Jeff Sullivan: I'd feel good for Josh Harrison 10:31Comment From GuestOn TV yesterday the anchor compared Dalton Pompey to Vernon Wells and Shannon Stewart. Pretty lazy that a prospects comparison are almost always exactly the same ethnic group, however it sure seems to happen a lot 10:32Jeff Sullivan: You will find fine reasons that occurs and you will find bad reasons that occurs. Certain ethnic groups overall tend to perform differently from certain other ethnic groups, generally because of their backgrounds, however from time to time you really can get a reasonable comp of like, Masahiro Tanaka to peak Dan Haren 10:32Comment From bobJeff, over/under .350 batting avg for Soler at seasons end? 10:32Jeff Sullivan: um under 10:33Comment From GuestIf you take the very best 25 pitchers this year when it comes to Fangraphs WAR- just one comes with an ERA above 3.50. And hes in the top-10. Thoughts on Phil Hughes? 10:33Jeff Sullivan: Hes having Cliff Lees 2010. I really like the new Hughes who just pounds the zone relentle sly 10:33Comment From GuestThe Nationals are 14-10 against current playoff teams. The Dodgers, in comparison, are 4 games under .500 against playoff teams. The Nats have the narrative that they cant beat good teams. Please explain. 10:33Jeff Sullivan: The Nationals havent won the planet Series before and people need something to speak about 10:34Comment From RobertHow worried if the Angels actually cover overusing their bullpen? Over July and August, they have been dominant by both ERA/FIP, but additionally have by far the most IP. And if they actually begin using Richards spot like a bullpen game, theyll really need to bulk up on arms for roster expansion 10:34Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully, roster expansion! 10:34Jeff Sullivan: Dont think its a Mike Thomas Jersey major thing to worry about. Ill trust Scioscia to understand a pitchers limits 10:34Comment From jocephusdo you have a favorite frozen treats? 10:34Jeff Sullivan: everything at Salt & Straw 10:35Comment From Diehard Cubs FanIs Stanton now the best position player in the NL? 10:35Jeff Sullivan: Not hands down. Theres a group of them, and hes within the group, but he doesnt stand out 10:35Comment From GalenWhy doesnt Adam Dunn make a go at 500 HRs? He only needs 39 more, youd think he might get there by 50 percent seasonsat which point hed only be 36. Weird. 10:36Jeff Sullivan: I believe its pretty obvious that Adam Dunn doesnt mind about reaching 500 home runs. If he did, he wouldnt be retiring. He has money and health insurance and youth and that i applaud his decision 10:38Comment From ChrisWhy exactly is Rick Porcello not a free agent until following the 2015 season? Wouldnt that be seven many years of team control? 10:38Jeff Sullivan: Hes 2 days shy of the full other year of service, because he was very briefly demoted to the minors in 2010 10:39Jeff Sullivan: At that point, he'd a 6.14 ERA, so it was justifiable 10:39Comment From bobwhos the cubs ace and finest hitter next year? 10:39Jeff Sullivan: Arrieta and Rizzo 10:39Comment From Risky Busine sSo are the Royals better than the Mariners? 10:39Jeff Sullivan: No 10:40Comment From RobertAre there any type of prospects you dont really care for? Like a guy without a true plus tool who doesnt play C/SS/CF? 10:40Jeff Sullivan: I personally dont really start paying attention to any prospect until he reaches Double-A, regardle s of how much talent hes believed to have 10:40Jeff Sullivan: After which I dont much take care of pitchers with big arms but modest results 10:41Comment From NateAre the Astros ever going to generate a heart warming headline again? Ive tried so hard to be looking forward to the way forward for the team, but my goshenough is enough using the from the field drama 10:42Jeff Sullivan: In two years theyll win 80+ games and everything thats happened will be shaded differently. Things get ugly when a team is struggling for so long. Frustration builds and people act up. This is actually the span of things; the Astros just might not have realized how bad it might get 10:43Comment From LaLooshDisagree. There's a huge aftereffect of falling towards the 11th worst record. unle s of course youre just decided not to partake in the free agent market, it might not matter much. But teams are loath to stop a very valuable 11th or 12th or 13th pick in the draft. 10:44Jeff Sullivan: How many compensation free agents are there, really? 10:44Jeff Sullivan: For how many of those free agents do teams much worry about the pick theyd be losing? 10:45Jeff Sullivan: Obviously theres some incentive to obtain a high draft pick but baseball teams know its so unpredictable they arent going to meaningfully shift their late-season considerations. More than anything else, bad teams need to see the young players they have succeed, and if that succe s pushes a team in the 10th towards the 11th pick, theyll be fine with it 10:47Comment From Reginald Denton IIIWhich of the Cubs prospects which have gotten the call this season is the favorite? 10:47Jeff Sullivan: Baez is my personal favorite but a part of that is subjective and emotional 10:48Comment From MattConceptually, does it make sense for that Cubs to slowly move the top prospect who they, privately, think is most likely to bust? At this point, MLB exposure is likely to hurt trade value, going forward. 10:48Jeff Sullivan: On the contrary, it appears as though MLB experience is very highly valued available on the market. Like, a prospect that has took part in the majors will be considered a great deal more valuable than an equivalent prospect whos only been in the minors 10:48Comment From GuestLen Kasper, the Cubs tv play-by play guy, called Arismendy Alcantara the Altoid, while he is curiously strong. 10:48Jeff Sullivan: love 10:49Comment From SadwickCan the Braves even manage to trade Gattis? They need more offense now, let's suppose they lost Gattis power. 10:49Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully they wouldnt be trading Gattis for nothing! 10:49Comment From Chris Davis ArmsJeff, projecting future baseball (and improving said projections) is an enormous a part of your work, but, theoretically, do you want to reside in a world where the projections are *always* right? 10:49Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no 10:49Jeff Sullivan: Then what can function as the point? 10:50Jeff Sullivan: Who would like to watch predetermined baseball? Isnt that they like watching a DVRd game where you already know the ultimate score? 10:50Comment From Po BorterAre the Astros better or worse off as an entire franchise on September 2, 2014 than they were on September 2, 2013? 10:51Jeff Sullivan: Thats actually a good question. Im always inclined to state better, because theres more talent and theres more developed talent, but theyve sustained lots of blows. Still, Ill opt for better 10:51Comment From GuestWhat is the opinion a good MLB franchise in Mexico, particularly Mexico City or Monterrey? 10:51Jeff Sullivan: Unworkable now, distinct po sibility in 20 years 10:52Comment From GuestNow that youve remembered about Castillo, what happens to Mookie Betts? 10:52Jeff Sullivan: Hell be discu sed in blockbuster trades, but even if he sticks around its not hard to find regular playing time for four outfielders 10:53Comment From GuestJake McGee was a really respected prospect approaching and was considered to have top of the rotation upside. Now hes a top-notch reliever. On the scale of 1-10, how happy should the Rays be with this outcome? 10:53Jeff Sullivan: 9 10:54Comment From TeejIm trying to recall the last white baseball player whose struggles were related to lazine s. 10:54Jeff Sullivan: Colby Rasmus has got that from time to time 10:54Jeff Sullivan: Adam Dunn, I think 10:54Jeff Sullivan: And JD Drew, of course! 10:55Comment From GuestWhich historical batter do you consider wouldve benefitted most from modern technology (batting helmets, shin protectors, elbow armor, etc.)? Ted Williams maybe? 10:55Jeff Sullivan: Ray Chapman 10:56Comment From Chris Davis ArmsPiggybacking off of that pitching fatigue idea Why dont teams track pickoff attempts, warm-up pitches, defensive plays for pitchers? Seems like there are many fatiguing events that take place for pitchers that arent being thought of Instead managers view Triple Digits as the magic reason for fatigue. 10:56Jeff Sullivan: They do track those things. Its exactly that we dont 10:56Jeff Sullivan: Now, whether they act upon those things 10:56Jeff Sullivan: But its always such a case-by-case thing. Sometimes a pitcher feels stronger at times, sometimes he feels weaker. Oftentimes we dont have enough information. For this reason its e sential for pitchers to be honest with their managers once they emerge for chats 10:57Comment From Dr. MetRe: Roster expansion, even the MLB network debated this however when do you consider (if) the MLB adjusts this 10:57Jeff Sullivan: Next CBA? CBA after that? 10:58Comment From Yo-YoSo the Cardinals po se s a bottom from the league offense, as well as their farm system is without any positional impact talent. Is the window closing with an aging Holliday/Molina/Waino? How can they upgrade the offense soon? 10:58Jeff Sullivan: Theyre tied for fifth in NL wRC+ 10:59Jeff Sullivan: Adams is young, Wong is young, Carpenters youngish, Taveras is young, Grichuk is young 11:00Jeff Sullivan: I mean, its clear that some of their top players are approaching the ends of their peaks, however i trust the Cardinals to be able to sustain a long run of succe s 11:00Jeff Sullivan: Probably no better organization with regards to player development. Theyll manage. They have arms, too. Arms are important. 11:00Comment From Ba smanUWLets try something not insane: over/under .350 OBP for Soler next season? 11:00Jeff Sullivan: under 11:01Comment From SimonSaysDo you think theres in whatever way to quantify the need for a mound visit? 11:01Jeff Sullivan: Not really 11:01Comment From KimballHave all the Bet-the-As-Regret-Trading-Cespedes banter, especially by game announcers, made you feel like maybe understanding hasnt progre sed a little bit within the last Ten years? 11:02Jeff Sullivan: Its something to speak about, and people need something to talk about. It will be highlights how people still confuse correlation and causation, but before getting too critical, Id want to ask those individuals privately how much they really have confidence in the idea. Its fine to speak about it, because, whatever, psychology is mysterious. But to *believe* in it is too much 11:02Comment From KimballI am not smart/number-y enough to actually understand Blenginos posts. Can you summarize it for me personally: reason to believe that Ackley continuously justify everyday playing time? 11:02Jeff Sullivan: Hes striking the ball harder 11:03Comment From Caleb JosephWhy would you hate me? 11:03Jeff Sullivan: I love you fine 11:03Comment From Chris Davis Armsre: predetermined baseball, I'd have gue sed that might be the way to go. Projecting baseball is just strange meaning, that, should you ultimately succeed in the purpose of getting as good as po sible, then you definitely ruin the thrill. Its interesting is all. 11:03Jeff Sullivan: So why do we plan anything in everyday life when so much of our way of life are out of our control? 11:04Jeff Sullivan: We can po se s the best ideas po sible, but at the end of the day, baseball and life allows for a sample size 1 11:04Comment From GuestWho would you like as a breakout pitcher for 2015 (ala Richards and Keuchel) 11:04Jeff Sullivan: Smyly? 11:05Comment From bobwhich player currently within the cubs franchise (majors/minors) has the most upside? 11:05Jeff Sullivan: Ru sell? 11:05Jeff Sullivan: Whoa, Im actually swept up on questions! 11:06Comment From SadwickI dont believe that. 11:06Jeff Sullivan: Me neither 11:06Jeff Sullivan: It has never happened 11:06Comment From zmikoShould Blackmon keep playing everyday the coming year? 11:07Jeff Sullivan: Id like him included in a four-outfielder rotation 11:07Comment From birdjustin upton getting any mvp votes? 11:07Jeff Sullivan: Hell get a little support however Coty Sensabaugh Jersey it wont considerably, especially whenever they go on to mi s the playoffs 11:08Comment From okobojicatWhy are Mariners fans such terrible fair weather fans? (yourself excluded) 11:08Jeff Sullivan: Most fans are fairweather fans. Its awful to root for a bad team. Its entirely reasonable and rational to distance yourself from the lousy product 11:09Comment From SimonSaysIgnoring the super elite prospects youve been referring to all day, how do you think Cory Spangenberg plays out for the Padres long term? 11:09Jeff Sullivan: I dont see much thats special about him. Unsure he reaches 2,000 big-league plate appearances 11:10Comment From RichieOK, quick one. Comment re Bo Porter: in allowing a whining environment to emerge in the Astro clubhouse, he merited firing. Dont wish to poison the climate for Springer/Singleton/all yet to come, and what in the world does the typical Astro player have to whine about?? 11:10Jeff Sullivan: I think theyre just frustrated from all the losing and from feeling like theyre not treated like people. Some of its merited, some of its not. New beginning in March 11:11Comment From CondorAckley declining walk rates: what's different between Ackley from college and 2nd half 2014 Ackley he cant or doesnt take walks any more? 11:11Jeff Sullivan: You cant draw walks if pitchers dont throw you balls, and Ackley gets challenged in the zone 11:12Jeff Sullivan: If he hits, hell force pitchers from the zone more regularly, and then the walks would stick to the succe s 11:12Comment From Daniel DescalsoHey Jeff, I was just wondering when there is any value in somebody that is replacement level at number of positions? Doesnt freeing up roster spots permit extra wins to make the roster? Requesting a buddy. 11:12Jeff Sullivan: Flexible replacement-level is better than position-specific replacement-level, however i think youll find most benches include utility replacement-level sorts and teh guys who're replacement-level at one position simply dont make it up the ladder 11:13Comment From okobojicatI havent seen the worst swings/pitches special lately? Am I mi sing it or are you not doing the work anymore? 11:13Jeff Sullivan: I do it monthly instead of weekly. I still need do it for August, but thatll be later within the week. Didnt have time to prepare for today and dont have time today to prepare for tomorrow 11:13Comment From GuestWhich peak-age breakout outfielder companies more: Dickerson or Martinez? 11:13Jeff Sullivan: Dickerson 11:14Comment From GuestThoughts on Gregory Polanco? 11:15Jeff Sullivan: I like him quite a bit and you should never rely on a rookie to create a sustained instant impact 11:15Comment From SadwickDoes Bethancourt really are a long-term catcher for that Braves, or simply a backup? I know hes been ranked highly within their syatem, and the defense rates spectacularly, but his offensive production looks awful. 11:15Jeff Sullivan: Oddly his framing numbers arent good yet either 11:16Jeff Sullivan: Jose Molina will be the working example of a bad-hitting catcher whos good enough defensively to experience often, but Bethancourt presumably shouldnt be the No. 1 guy in 2015 11:16Comment From RichieSo Luhnow is that bad with individuals? (GM doesnt even interact all THAT much with players) Thought such skills were an e sential thing for GMs. 11:16Jeff Sullivan: Luhnow isnt the only guy who works in the front ofice 11:16Comment From RyanHow perform the playoff odds handle Kansas Citys suspended 4-2 game? 11:16Jeff Sullivan: They dont learn about it yet 11:17Comment From SimonSaysWhich is the real Mark Appel: A or AA? 11:17Jeff Sullivan: more like Double-A 11:17Comment From lunchwhich team is your least favorite? be brutal. 11:18Jeff Sullivan: I dont know anymore. Used to be the Angels for years, but Ive let hate leave my life 11:18Jeff Sullivan: That needs to be enough chatting for today 11:19Jeff Sullivan: Much more to complete. So thank you everybody for chilling out, and Im sorry for which I didnt or couldnt addre s. Well try it again next week simultaneously, and until then, be and also have great days
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